MarginGuard / Benchmarks

What the 2026 tariffs do to margins, by product category

The current US tariff stack does not hit a catalog evenly. Below is the modeled gross-margin impact for 24 product categories imported from China, the most common origin. Each row starts from a category-typical margin (published benchmark) and applies the real 2026 duty stack: base HTS duty, Section 301, Section 232 where it applies, and the surcharge.

This is a modeled scenario with stated assumptions, not a measurement of any store. The starting margin is a category benchmark; a real store's number depends on its own costs. The duty rates are real 2026 schedules. Run your own catalog for your actual exposure.

Modeled margin impact, China origin

CategoryEffective dutyTypical marginAfter tariffChangeVerdict
Auto parts62.5%35%-5.6%-40.6 ptsunderwater
Tools & hardware64.0%40%1.6%-38.4 ptsunderwater
Electronics38.0%25%-3.5%-28.5 ptsunderwater
Fitness equipment39.5%35%9.3%-25.7 ptsunderwater
Office supplies37.0%35%10.9%-24.1 ptsunderwater
Ceramics & tableware43.0%45%21.3%-23.7 ptsunderwater
Bags & luggage47.0%50%26.5%-23.5 ptsunderwater
Furniture39.0%40%16.6%-23.4 ptsunderwater
Garden & outdoor39.0%40%16.6%-23.4 ptsunderwater
Sports & outdoors40.0%42%18.8%-23.2 ptsunderwater
Lighting39.0%42%19.4%-22.6 ptsunderwater
Home & kitchen41.0%45%22.4%-22.6 ptsunderwater
Hair & beauty tools38.5%45%23.8%-21.2 ptsunderwater
Watches40.0%48%27.2%-20.8 ptsunderwater
Eyewear37.5%58%42.3%-15.8 ptsunderwater
Footwear28.5%50%35.7%-14.3 ptsunderwater
Apparel & textiles31.5%55%40.8%-14.2 ptsunderwater
Home textiles26.5%52%39.3%-12.7 ptsunderwater
Baby products22.5%45%32.6%-12.4 ptsunderwater
Pet products21.5%45%33.2%-11.8 ptsunderwater
Jewelry & accessories23.5%55%44.4%-10.6 ptsunderwater
Toys & games17.5%45%35.4%-9.6 ptsunderwater
Candles & fragrance20.5%55%45.8%-9.2 ptsunderwater
Beauty & personal care19.5%68%61.8%-6.2 ptsholds

Sourcing: duty rates from USITC HTS 2026 plus USTR Section 301 and Section 232 actions. Category margins from NYU Stern margins-by-sector and public DTC filings. Categories where the typical margin stays above its target floor are marked "holds".

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Import from a different country? The scanner adjusts duty by origin, including duty-free lanes. See per-country tariff guides.